glossary
Contextual uplift: definition
Contextual uplift is the conversion (or revenue) gain that comes from showing the right page to the right visitor context — not from finding a single page that is best for everyone.
If page A wins for some visitors and page B wins for others, a pure A-vs-B average can look flat while a routing rule that assigns each visitor correctly produces large gains. The aggregate A/B “tie” hides the opportunity.
Why A/B tests miss it
Classic A/B assigns randomly and compares means. Gains that live in heterogeneous treatment effects cancel. Multi-variant prediction and contextual policies target that heterogeneity.
Related
- Worked example: What A/B tests cannot see
- Predictive landing page optimization